Bishopsgate · Analysis updated 12:43 UTC
Longford Town vs Kerry FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.29 for Kerry FC, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Longford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Longford Town home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Longford Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Longford Town and 1.29 for Kerry FC, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.34 | 40.1% | 41.2% | 2.43 | +1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 43.5% | 44.4% | 2.25 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.42 | 65.8% | 66.6% | 1.50 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.1% | 2.08 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.84 | 33.1% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.5% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 55.6% | 1.80 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.8% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Longford Town
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wexford · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 1-0 (W)
Kerry FC
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 75 |
| 2 | UCD | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 56 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 54 |
| 4 | Kerry FC | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 52 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 49 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -14 | 42 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -16 | 42 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 36 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -37 | 28 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.