Inglewhite Road · Analysis updated 15:37 UTC
Longridge Town vs AFC Emley Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Longridge Town and 1.41 for AFC Emley, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Longridge Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Longridge Town win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Longridge Town home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Emley away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Longridge Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Longridge Town and 1.41 for AFC Emley, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Longridge Town
- 2026-07-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U18 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Clitheroe · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolton Wanderers Res. · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston North End U21 · 0-2 (L)
AFC Emley
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Workington · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bootle · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spennymoor Town · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Longridge Town win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.