· Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
Longridge Town vs Preston North End U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Longridge Town and 1.60 for Preston North End U21, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Longridge Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Longridge Town win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Longridge Town home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Preston North End U21 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Longridge Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Longridge Town and 1.60 for Preston North End U21, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Longridge Town
- 2026-07-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Fylde · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U18 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Clitheroe · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolton Wanderers Res. · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston North End U21 · 0-2 (L)
Preston North End U21
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Longridge Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich Town U21 · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Longridge Town win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.