Lorca Deportiva vs Castellonense Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Lorca Deportiva and 1.23 for Castellonense, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Castellonense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Castellonense win

50.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.63 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lorca Deportiva home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castellonense away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellonense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 19% / 30% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Lorca Deportiva and 1.23 for Castellonense, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Lorca Deportiva win19%

Draw30%

Castellonense win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

0–119.3%
0–015.7%
1–112.0%
0–211.8%
1–09.8%

Recent form

Lorca Deportiva

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 1-1 (D)

Castellonense

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Cieza · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Poblense · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ucam Murcia	7	5	0	2	9	15
2	Castellón II	6	4	0	2	6	12
3	Castellonense	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	La Nucía	6	4	0	2	4	12
5	Cieza	6	3	2	1	6	11
6	Deportiva Minera	6	3	2	1	2	11
7	Yeclano	7	2	4	1	1	10
8	Alcoyano	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Orihuela	7	3	1	3	-5	10
10	Lorca Deportiva	7	2	3	2	1	9
11	Intercity	6	2	3	1	0	9
12	Elche II	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Atlético Baleares	7	1	4	2	-3	7
14	Poblense	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Mallorca II	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Peña Deportiva	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Valencia II	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Real Murcia II	6	1	1	4	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Castellonense win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.