· Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Lorca Deportiva and 0.50 for Poblense, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Lorca Deportiva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lorca Deportiva win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lorca Deportiva home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Poblense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lorca Deportiva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 33% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Lorca Deportiva and 0.50 for Poblense, a combined 1.60 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–022.2%
- 0–020.2%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–110.1%
Recent form
Lorca Deportiva
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 1-1 (D)
Poblense
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcoyano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alcoyano | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Ucam Murcia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Cieza | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportiva Minera | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Yeclano | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Orihuela | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 11 | Lorca Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Mallorca II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Valencia II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Elche II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Poblense | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Real Murcia II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Peña Deportiva | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lorca Deportiva win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.