· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Lorient II vs Saint-Malo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Lorient II and 1.42 for Saint-Malo, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Saint-Malo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Saint-Malo win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lorient II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saint-Malo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Lorient II
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Briochin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pontivy GSI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayonne · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarbes · 0-1 (L)
Saint-Malo
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saumur · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Granville · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Colomban Locminé · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Briochin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Lorient II 3-0 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group A)
- 2026-01-10T17:00:00.000Z · Lorient II 2-4 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group A)
- 2024-03-16T17:00:00.000Z · Lorient II 1-1 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group C)
- 2023-10-21T16:30:00.000Z · Lorient II 0-2 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group C)
- 2022-02-05T17:00:00.000Z · Lorient II 0-2 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group A)
- 2021-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · Lorient II 2-0 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group A)
- 2020-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient II 1-1 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group A)
- 2019-12-21T17:00:00.000Z · Lorient II 0-0 Saint-Malo (National 2 - Group B)
National 2 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angoulême | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Bayonne | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Granville | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Avranches | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Dinan Léhon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Saint-Malo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Tarbes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Lorient II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Briochin | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Les Herbiers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Saint-Colomban Locminé | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Saumur | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Pontivy GSI | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Châteaubriant | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Chauray | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Saint-Malo win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.