Lorient vs Lens Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lorient and 1.53 for Lens, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Lorient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lorient win39%

Draw24%

Lens win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–18.5%
1–28.2%
1–07.1%
0–16.9%

Why the model likes this

Lorient home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lorient to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Lorient and 1.53 for Lens, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Lorient

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs UNFP · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-0 (W)

Lens

2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Charleroi · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.