Lorient vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Lorient and 1.22 for Marseille, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Lorient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lorient win

51.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lorient win51%

Draw23%

Marseille win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.7%
1–08.8%
2–07.9%
1–26.5%

Why the model likes this

Lorient home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lorient to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Lorient and 1.22 for Marseille, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Lorient

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs UNFP · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-0 (W)

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2025-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · Lorient 0-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2024-05-12T19:00:00.000Z · Lorient 1-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-12-10T19:45:00.000Z · Lorient 2-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-04-09T18:45:00.000Z · Lorient 0-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-01-14T18:00:00.000Z · Lorient 1-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2022-05-08T15:05:00.000Z · Lorient 0-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2021-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · Lorient 1-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2021-04-17T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2020-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient 0-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.