· Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Lorient vs UNFP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Lorient and 0.90 for UNFP, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Lorient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lorient win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lorient home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UNFP away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lorient to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Lorient and 0.90 for UNFP, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.3%
- 3–09.1%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.7%
Recent form
Lorient
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-2 (L)
UNFP
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lorient win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.