Dignity Health Sports Park · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.19 for Portland Timbers, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Los Angeles Galaxy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Los Angeles Galaxy home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Portland Timbers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Los Angeles Galaxy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.19 for Portland Timbers, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 45.8% vs market 33.3%, edge +12.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.80 | 33.3% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +12.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 54.1% | 55.3% | 1.81 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 44.4% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 70.1% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 30.3% | 29.9% | 3.34 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.8% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 66.7% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -12.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Los Angeles Galaxy
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Louis City · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Rapids · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Minnesota United FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Seattle Sounders · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 0-3 (L)
Portland Timbers
- 2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.