· Analysis updated 11:28 UTC
Los Cabos United vs Celaya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Los Cabos United and 1.31 for Celaya, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Celaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Los Cabos United home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Celaya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celaya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 28% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Los Cabos United and 1.31 for Celaya, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Los Cabos United
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing de Veracruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordobés · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs H2O Purepechas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 1-0 (W)
Celaya
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Pioneros de Cancún · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Cimarrones · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cimarrones · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Leones Negros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.