· Analysis updated 12:10 UTC
Lossiemouth vs Wick Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Lossiemouth and 1.63 for Wick Academy, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Lossiemouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lossiemouth win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lossiemouth home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wick Academy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Lossiemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Banks O' Dee · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Buckie Thistle · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Musselburgh Athletic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wick Academy · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Formartine United · 0-3 (L)
Wick Academy
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tayport · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lossiemouth · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraserburgh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nairn County · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Forres Mechanics · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 0-3 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 1-0 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 1-4 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 1-3 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 0-3 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 1-0 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 2-2 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2022-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 2-1 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2021-12-27T15:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 0-2 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
- 2021-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · Lossiemouth 2-1 Wick Academy (Football League - Highland League)
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 39 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 5 | Banks O' Dee | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 6 | Clachnacuddin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Huntly | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Strathspey Thistle | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Forres Mechanics | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Deveronvale | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Nairn County | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Turriff United | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 20 |
| 13 | Buckie Thistle | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 14 | Keith | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 18 |
| 15 | Lossiemouth | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 18 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -21 | 13 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -27 | 10 |
| 18 | Rothes | 15 | 1 | 0 | 14 | -53 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lossiemouth win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.