· Analysis updated 16:13 UTC
Loughborough University vs Barwell Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Loughborough University and 0.99 for Barwell, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Loughborough University the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Loughborough University win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Loughborough University home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barwell away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Loughborough University to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Loughborough University and 0.99 for Barwell, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.1%
- 2–010.1%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.7%
Recent form
Loughborough University
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasetown · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barwell · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boldmere St. Michaels · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belper Town · 2-1 (W)
Barwell
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Loughborough University win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.