· Analysis updated 12:24 UTC
Loughborough University vs Stourbridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Loughborough University and 2.20 for Stourbridge, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Stourbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stourbridge win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Loughborough University home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stourbridge away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stourbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Loughborough University and 2.20 for Stourbridge, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Loughborough University
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasetown · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barwell · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Boldmere St. Michaels · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Belper Town · 2-1 (W)
Stourbridge
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leighton Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stourbridge win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.