Loughgall vs Glenavon FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Loughgall and 2.23 for Glenavon FC, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Glenavon FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Glenavon FC win

61.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 2.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Loughgall home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Glenavon FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Loughgall win19%

Draw20%

Glenavon FC win62%

Double chance 1X

38%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–29.7%
1–18.8%
0–28.5%
0–17.6%
1–37.2%

Recent form

Loughgall

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-1 (W)

Glenavon FC

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Loughgall · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · Loughgall 1-4 Glenavon FC (Championship)
2025-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 1-2 Glenavon FC (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 1-0 Glenavon FC (Premiership)
2025-03-04T19:45:00.000Z · Loughgall 0-2 Glenavon FC (Premiership)
2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 3-0 Glenavon FC (Premiership)
2024-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 2-2 Glenavon FC (Premiership)
2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 3-1 Glenavon FC (Premiership)
2024-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 2-1 Glenavon FC (Premiership)
2023-11-18T15:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 0-2 Glenavon FC (Premiership)
2023-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Loughgall 2-2 Glenavon FC (Premiership)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	6	3	4	2	21
5	Queen's University	13	6	2	5	8	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	-5	17
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	-11	10
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Glenavon FC win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.