Lakeview Park · Analysis updated 09:21 UTC
Loughgall vs Newry City AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Loughgall and 2.45 for Newry City AFC, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Newry City AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newry City AFC win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Loughgall home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newry City AFC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–37.5%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–35.9%
Recent form
Loughgall
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-1 (W)
Newry City AFC
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Annagh United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 2-1 Newry City AFC (Championship)
- 2024-07-16T18:30:00.000Z · Loughgall 1-1 Newry City AFC (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-27T16:30:00.000Z · Loughgall 4-1 Newry City AFC (Premiership)
- 2024-02-13T19:45:00.000Z · Loughgall 0-0 Newry City AFC (Premiership)
- 2023-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 3-1 Newry City AFC (Premiership)
- 2023-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 3-0 Newry City AFC (Premiership)
- 2022-04-16T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 2-0 Newry City AFC (Championship)
- 2022-03-15T19:45:00.000Z · Loughgall 1-0 Newry City AFC (Championship)
- 2021-12-11T15:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 1-3 Newry City AFC (Championship)
- 2021-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · Loughgall 1-1 Newry City AFC (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newry City AFC win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.