Lakeview Park · Analysis updated 00:42 UTC
Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Loughgall and 1.25 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Loughgall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.
Model pick
Loughgall to Win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.1%
- 3–17.0%
Why the model likes this
Loughgall home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Loughgall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.17 goals for Loughgall and 1.25 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Loughgall
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rathfriland · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dollingstown · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 1-4 (L)
Warrenpoint Town
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ards | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | H&W Welders | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Newry City AFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 | Loughgall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Moyola Park | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Queen's University | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Institute | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Annagh United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundela | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Strabane Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Ballinamallard United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Warrenpoint Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.