Loughgall vs Warrenpoint Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Loughgall and 1.25 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Loughgall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Loughgall win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Loughgall home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Warrenpoint Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Loughgall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Loughgall and 1.25 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Loughgall win58%

Draw20%

Warrenpoint Town win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–18.8%
2–07.7%
1–07.1%
3–17.0%

Recent form

Loughgall

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Institute · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Moyola Park · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-1 (W)

Warrenpoint Town

2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	6	3	4	2	21
5	Queen's University	13	6	2	5	8	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	-5	17
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	-11	10
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Loughgall win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.