Louletano vs União Santarém Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Louletano and 1.06 for União Santarém, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Louletano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Louletano win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Louletano home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
União Santarém away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Louletano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Louletano and 1.06 for União Santarém, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Louletano win50%

Draw25%

União Santarém win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–011.2%
2–19.5%
2–08.9%
0–17.5%

Recent form

Louletano

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Santarém · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Castrense · 1-0 (W)

União Santarém

2026-10-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merelinense · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldas · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	7	5	1	1	8	16
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	AD Marco 09	7	3	2	2	1	11
2	Atlético CP	6	4	1	1	8	13
3	Fafe	7	2	4	1	4	10
3	Oliveirense	7	2	4	1	0	10
4	Leça	7	3	1	3	0	10
4	Mafra	7	2	3	2	4	9
5	Vianense	6	2	3	1	1	9
5	Caldas	7	2	2	3	-3	8
6	Varzim	6	3	0	3	2	9
6	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	-4	7
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	-3	8
7	Louletano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
8	São João Ver	6	1	3	2	-2	6
8	SC Covilha	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Guimaraes B	6	1	2	3	-2	5
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	1	3	3	-4	6
10	Trofense	7	1	2	4	-9	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Louletano win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.