· Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Lovćen vs Berane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Lovćen and 0.80 for Berane, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Lovćen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lovćen win
75.3% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lovćen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Berane away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.4%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Lovćen
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-0 (W)
Berane
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · Lovćen 0-0 Berane (Second League)
- 2026-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Lovćen 1-1 Berane (Second League)
- 2025-11-16T13:00:00.000Z · Lovćen 0-4 Berane (Second League)
- 2025-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · Lovćen 1-1 Berane (Second League)
- 2024-04-20T14:30:00.000Z · Lovćen 0-0 Berane (Second League)
- 2024-03-06T14:00:00.000Z · Lovćen 2-1 Berane (Second League)
- 2023-10-14T14:30:00.000Z · Lovćen 1-0 Berane (Second League)
- 2023-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · Lovćen 2-1 Berane (Second League)
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lovćen win, at 75.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.