· Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Lovćen vs Grbalj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lovćen and 1.55 for Grbalj, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Grbalj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Grbalj win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lovćen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grbalj away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grbalj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 24% / 26% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Lovćen and 1.55 for Grbalj, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Lovćen
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-0 (W)
Grbalj
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berane · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grbalj win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.