· Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Lovćen vs Iskra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lovćen and 1.09 for Iskra, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Lovćen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lovćen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iskra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lovćen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Lovćen and 1.09 for Iskra, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Lovćen
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jedinstvo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mogren · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zeta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-0 (W)
Iskra
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.