· Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Lower Breck vs North Ferriby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Lower Breck and 1.10 for North Ferriby, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Lower Breck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lower Breck win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lower Breck home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
North Ferriby away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lower Breck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Lower Breck and 1.10 for North Ferriby, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Lower Breck
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chester · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stalybridge Celtic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Thornaby · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs North Ferriby · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shifnal Town FC · 3-1 (W)
North Ferriby
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barton Town Old Boys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barton Town Old Boys · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Scunthorpe · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Redcar Athletic · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lower Breck win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.