· Analysis updated 23:24 UTC
Lower Breck vs Thornaby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for Lower Breck and 1.26 for Thornaby, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Lower Breck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lower Breck win
67.0% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lower Breck home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lower Breck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.65 goals for Lower Breck and 1.26 for Thornaby, a combined 3.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Lower Breck
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chester · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stalybridge Celtic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Thornaby · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs North Ferriby · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shifnal Town FC · 3-1 (W)
Thornaby
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunston UTS · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tadcaster Albion · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hebburn Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2022-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kendal Town · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lower Breck win, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.