Ledøje Idrætscenter · Analysis updated 20:08 UTC
LSF vs Espergærde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for LSF and 1.52 for Espergærde, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives LSF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
LSF win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Espergærde away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LSF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for LSF and 1.52 for Espergærde, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
LSF
Espergærde
- 2026-08-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjold Sæby · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSI · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Næstved II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-03-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Såby · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Avarta · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Denmark Series - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avarta | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 40 |
| 2 | Glostrup | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 40 |
| 3 | Tårnby FF | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 30 |
| 4 | Frederikssund | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 25 |
| 5 | Espergærde | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 6 | Såby | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | LSF | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Herlev | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 9 | Næstved II | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -16 | 20 |
| 10 | AB Tårnby | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is LSF win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.