Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Luanda City vs 1º de Agosto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Luanda City and 1.55 for 1º de Agosto, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives 1º de Agosto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1º de Agosto win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luanda City home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1º de Agosto away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1º de Agosto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 13% / 25% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Luanda City and 1.55 for 1º de Agosto, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.0%
- 0–214.7%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Luanda City
- 2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sagrada Esperança · 0-0 (D)
1º de Agosto
- 2026-10-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Virunga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Virunga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Académica do Lobito · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Green Mamba · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Girabola table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Desportivo Huíla | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Petro de Luanda | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bravos do Maquis FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | 1º de Agosto | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Interclube | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sagrada Esperança | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | CD Lunda-Sul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Recreativo do Libolo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | São Salvador | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | 1º de Maio | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Recreativo da Caála | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | FC Luanda | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1º de Agosto win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.