· Analysis updated 23:31 UTC
Lübeck U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Lübeck U19 and 2.87 for Arminia Bielefeld U19, a combined total of 4.63. That distribution gives Arminia Bielefeld U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Arminia Bielefeld U19 win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lübeck U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arminia Bielefeld U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 22% / 17% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Lübeck U19 and 2.87 for Arminia Bielefeld U19, a combined 4.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.1%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.2%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–14.9%
Recent form
Lübeck U19
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenthaler SV U19 · 2-3 (L)
Arminia Bielefeld U19
- 2026-08-23T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lübeck U19 · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV U19 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arminia Bielefeld U19 win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.