· Analysis updated 21:44 UTC
Lübeck U19 vs Babelsberg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Lübeck U19 and 3.35 for Babelsberg U19, a combined total of 5.35. That distribution gives Babelsberg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Babelsberg U19 win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 3.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lübeck U19 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Babelsberg U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Babelsberg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 21% / 15% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Lübeck U19 and 3.35 for Babelsberg U19, a combined 5.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.0%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–25.3%
- 2–25.3%
- 1–45.0%
Recent form
Lübeck U19
- 2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Babelsberg U19 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Blumenthaler SV U19 · 2-3 (L)
Babelsberg U19
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC U19 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Köln U19 · 5-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · Lübeck U19 1-7 Babelsberg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-08T12:00:00.000Z · Lübeck U19 1-4 Babelsberg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Babelsberg U19 win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.