Lucchese vs Progresso Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.18 expected goals for Lucchese and 1.00 for Progresso, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives Lucchese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lucchese win

79.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.18 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lucchese home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Progresso away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lucchese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.18 goals for Lucchese and 1.00 for Progresso, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lucchese win80%

Draw12%

Progresso win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

3–18.2%
3–08.2%
2–17.7%
2–07.7%
4–16.5%

Recent form

Lucchese

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rondinella · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresso · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Seravezza · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Montevarchi Calcio · 2-1 (W)
2025-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestri Levante · 1-0 (W)

Progresso

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucchese · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scandicci · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tau Altopascio · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone E table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Prato	7	5	2	0	7	17
2	Gavorrano	7	4	3	0	6	15
3	Lucchese	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	Seravezza	7	4	1	2	10	13
5	Robur Siena	7	4	1	2	6	13
6	Tau Altopascio	7	4	1	2	-2	13
7	Scandicci	7	3	3	1	5	12
8	Flaminia	7	3	2	2	-1	11
9	Ternana	7	2	3	2	4	9
10	Terranuova Traiana	7	2	3	2	2	9
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Mezzolara	7	1	5	1	-2	8
13	Rondinella	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Montevarchi Calcio	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Grassina	7	0	3	4	-7	3
17	Progresso	7	1	0	6	-12	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	7	0	2	5	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lucchese win, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.