Porta Elisa · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Lucchese vs Robur Siena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Lucchese and 1.91 for Robur Siena, a combined total of 3.99. That distribution gives Lucchese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lucchese home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Robur Siena away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lucchese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Lucchese and 1.91 for Robur Siena, a combined 3.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Lucchese
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rondinella · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresso · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Seravezza · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Montevarchi Calcio · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestri Levante · 1-0 (W)
Robur Siena
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucchese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Montevarchi Calcio · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tau Altopascio · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mezzolara · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scandicci · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Lucchese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Seravezza | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Flaminia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Ternana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Terranuova Traiana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Mezzolara | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Rondinella | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Montevarchi Calcio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Grassina | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Progresso | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.