Luckenwalde vs BFC Dynamo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Luckenwalde and 2.25 for BFC Dynamo, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives BFC Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

BFC Dynamo win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Luckenwalde home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BFC Dynamo away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Luckenwalde win22%

Draw20%

BFC Dynamo win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.4%
1–18.4%
0–27.1%
1–37.0%
0–16.3%

Recent form

Luckenwalde

2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 1-2 (L)

BFC Dynamo

2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 0-2 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 0-1 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2026-03-25T18:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 1-0 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2025-03-11T18:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 0-0 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2024-08-25T11:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 0-0 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2024-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 2-0 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2023-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 0-4 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2023-05-21T11:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 3-1 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2022-12-11T12:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 3-2 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2022-03-20T12:00:00.000Z · Luckenwalde 0-2 BFC Dynamo (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	9	3	1	22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	8	4	1	23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	8	1	4	11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	7	4	2	9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	7	3	3	7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	6	4	3	6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	6	3	4	2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	5	1	7	-2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	3	4	6	-9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	2	5	6	-5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	2	3	8	-16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	2	2	9	-19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	2	0	11	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BFC Dynamo win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.