· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Luckenwalde vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Luckenwalde and 3.43 for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt, a combined total of 4.41. That distribution gives FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win
82.8% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 3.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luckenwalde home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 7% / 10% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Luckenwalde and 3.43 for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt, a combined 4.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.2%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–47.0%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
Luckenwalde
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 1-2 (L)
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | BFC Dynamo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Altglienicke | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Erzgebirge Aue | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | FSV Zwickau | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Hertha BSC II | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Luckenwalde | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | Tasmania Berlin | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win, at 82.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.