· Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Luckenwalde vs Optik Rathenow Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Luckenwalde and 1.49 for Optik Rathenow, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Optik Rathenow the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luckenwalde home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Optik Rathenow away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Optik Rathenow to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Luckenwalde and 1.49 for Optik Rathenow, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–07.8%
Recent form
Luckenwalde
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 1-2 (L)
Optik Rathenow
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lok Stendal · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Klosterfelde · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neustrelitz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.