Luckenwalde vs Tasmania Berlin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Luckenwalde and 1.88 for Tasmania Berlin, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Luckenwalde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.10 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Luckenwalde home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tasmania Berlin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luckenwalde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Luckenwalde and 1.88 for Tasmania Berlin, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Luckenwalde win44%

Draw21%

Tasmania Berlin win36%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–17.7%
1–17.4%
2–27.3%
1–26.9%
3–15.4%

Recent form

Luckenwalde

2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 1-2 (L)

Tasmania Berlin

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	9	3	1	22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	8	4	1	23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	8	1	4	11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	7	4	2	9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	7	3	3	7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	6	4	3	6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	6	3	4	2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	5	1	7	-2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	3	4	6	-9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	2	5	6	-5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	2	3	8	-16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	2	2	9	-19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	2	0	11	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.