· Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Lucko vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lucko and 1.13 for Varteks Varaždin, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Lucko the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lucko home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varteks Varaždin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lucko to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Lucko and 1.13 for Varteks Varaždin, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Lucko
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Trnje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Slavonija Požega · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagora · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Uljanik · 2-2 (D)
Varteks Varaždin
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.