· Analysis updated 20:23 UTC
Lucksta vs Täfteå Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Lucksta and 1.98 for Täfteå, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Lucksta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lucksta home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Täfteå away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lucksta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Lucksta and 1.98 for Täfteå, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 1–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 3–15.0%
Recent form
Lucksta
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Östersund · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Täfteå · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Luleå · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gottne · 4-2 (W)
Täfteå
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Boden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kubikenborg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucksta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Östersund · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Skellefteå · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.