PFC Ludogorets 1945 Training Centre · Analysis updated 11:04 UTC
Ludogorets II vs Dobrudzha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for Ludogorets II and 0.91 for Dobrudzha, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Ludogorets II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ludogorets II win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ludogorets II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dobrudzha away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 74.9% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 43.5% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.5% | 20.2% | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.85 | 51.3% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 55.5% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.7% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.0% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 81.6% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ludogorets II
- 2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Montana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 3-0 (W)
Dobrudzha
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasitsa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebar 1918 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vihren · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Beroe · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-04T13:30:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 0-0 Dobrudzha (Second League)
- 2025-02-08T12:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 2-0 Dobrudzha (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 1-1 Dobrudzha (Second League)
- 2023-12-11T12:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 1-1 Dobrudzha (Second League)
- 2023-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 0-1 Dobrudzha (Second League)
- 2023-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 2-1 Dobrudzha (Second League)
- 2022-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 2-1 Dobrudzha (Second League)
- 2022-07-09T15:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 0-4 Dobrudzha (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 2-3 Dobrudzha (Second League)
- 2021-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 5-0 Dobrudzha (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | Vihren | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Beroe | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Hebar 1918 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Yantra 2019 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 10 | Marek | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Nesebar | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 15 | Sportist Svoge | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -31 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ludogorets II win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.