Ludogorets II vs Nesebar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ludogorets II and 1.23 for Nesebar, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Ludogorets II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ludogorets II home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nesebar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ludogorets II win41%

Draw26%

Nesebar win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–010.1%
0–18.9%
2–18.7%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Ludogorets II

2026-10-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Montana · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Pleven · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fratria · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 3-0 (W)

Nesebar

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodopa Smolyan · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vihren · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beroe · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-01T15:30:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 1-1 Nesebar (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 2-0 Nesebar (Second League)
2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 2-2 Nesebar (Second League)
2018-12-03T12:30:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 4-1 Nesebar (Second League)
2018-07-29T15:30:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 2-4 Nesebar (Second League)
2018-03-04T13:30:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 0-2 Nesebar (Second League)
2017-08-13T15:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 1-3 Nesebar (Second League)
2017-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 3-0 Nesebar (Second League)
2016-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · Ludogorets II 4-1 Nesebar (Second League)

Second League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	13	7	4	2	14	25
2	Vihren	13	7	4	2	13	25
3	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	13	7	4	2	13	25
4	Fratria	12	6	4	2	7	22
5	Beroe	13	6	3	4	5	21
6	Hebar 1918	13	6	2	5	8	20
7	Yantra 2019	13	6	2	5	2	20
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	13	5	5	3	1	20
9	Rilski Sportist	13	5	4	4	2	19
10	Marek	13	5	3	5	0	18
11	Nesebar	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Spartak Pleven	13	5	2	6	-10	17
13	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	12	5	2	5	-1	17
14	Ludogorets II	11	4	3	4	0	15
15	Sportist Svoge	13	2	5	6	-5	11
16	Montana	12	3	2	7	-11	11
17	Dobrudzha	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	13	0	1	12	-31	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.