Huvepharma Arena · Analysis updated 06:25 UTC
Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.76 expected goals for Ludogorets and 0.69 for Cherno More Varna, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Ludogorets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ludogorets win
80.4% probability
Expected goals
2.76 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ludogorets home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cherno More Varna away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ludogorets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.76 goals for Ludogorets and 0.69 for Cherno More Varna, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.1%
- 3–011.1%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.7%
Recent form
Ludogorets
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-1 (W)
Cherno More Varna
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arda Kardzhali · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ludogorets win, at 80.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.