· Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Ludogorets vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Ludogorets and 0.87 for CSM Ramnicu Valcea, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Ludogorets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ludogorets win
67.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ludogorets home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSM Ramnicu Valcea away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ludogorets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Ludogorets and 0.87 for CSM Ramnicu Valcea, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Ludogorets
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-1 (W)
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gloria Bistriţa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ludogorets · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Bihor Oradea · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Cetatea Suceava · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Reşiţa · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ludogorets win, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.