· Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Luftëtari vs Oriku Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.16 expected goals for Luftëtari and 1.73 for Oriku, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Luftëtari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luftëtari win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
3.16 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luftëtari home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oriku away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Luftëtari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 15% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.16 goals for Luftëtari and 1.73 for Oriku, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.9%
- 2–16.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–25.6%
- 4–15.4%
Recent form
Luftëtari
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogradeci · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 2-1 (W)
Oriku
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tomori Berat · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Butrinti Sarandë · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Memaliaj · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogradeci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 2 | Laci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 3 | Luftëtari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Shiroka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Besa Kavajë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Bylis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Flamurtari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Apolonia Fier | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Kastrioti Krujë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Eagle FA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | FK Kukesi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Butrinti Sarandë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Korabi Peshkopi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Veleçiku Koplik | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Burreli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Erzeni Shijak | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Oriku | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Sopoti Librazhd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Tërbuni Pukë | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Luzi 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Maliqi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Albpetrol Patos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 26 | Devolli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 27 | Gramshi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Naftëtari Kuçovë | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Lushnja | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 30 | Tomori Berat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 31 | Këlcyra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 32 | Delvina | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luftëtari win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.