Lugano II vs Cham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Lugano II and 1.78 for Cham, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Lugano II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lugano II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lugano II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Lugano II and 1.78 for Cham, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lugano II win39%

Draw22%

Cham win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–28.0%
2–18.0%
2–27.1%
0–15.1%

Recent form

Lugano II

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paradiso · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schaffhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 3-0 (W)

Cham

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugano II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brühl · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs YF Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zürich II · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-14T14:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 0-3 Cham (1. Liga Promotion)
2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 0-6 Cham (1. Liga Promotion)
2025-04-09T17:30:00.000Z · Lugano II 0-1 Cham (1. Liga Promotion)
2024-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 3-1 Cham (1. Liga Promotion)
2024-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 3-2 Cham (1. Liga Promotion)
2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 1-5 Cham (1. Liga Promotion)

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	11	8	2	1	13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
3	Cham	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Bulle	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Paradiso	12	6	3	3	11	21
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	7	0	5	7	21
7	Basel II	12	6	1	5	2	19
8	Zürich II	12	5	3	4	1	18
9	Breitenrain	12	5	3	4	1	18
10	YF Juventus	12	5	1	6	-3	16
11	Amical Saint-Prex	12	5	1	6	-9	16
12	Kreuzlingen	11	4	3	4	1	15
13	Brühl	11	4	2	5	-2	14
14	Lugano II	12	4	0	8	-7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	3	3	6	-9	12
16	Bavois	12	2	2	8	-6	8
17	Luzern II	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.