Lugano II vs Kreuzlingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lugano II and 1.30 for Kreuzlingen, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Lugano II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lugano II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kreuzlingen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lugano II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Lugano II and 1.30 for Kreuzlingen, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lugano II win42%

Draw25%

Kreuzlingen win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.1%
2–18.9%
0–17.9%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Lugano II

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kreuzlingen · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Paradiso · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schaffhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 3-0 (W)

Kreuzlingen

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugano II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brühl · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs YF Juventus · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 1-1 Kreuzlingen (1. Liga Promotion)
2025-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 1-0 Kreuzlingen (1. Liga Promotion)
2023-04-29T14:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 0-1 Kreuzlingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
2022-10-15T15:00:00.000Z · Lugano II 0-1 Kreuzlingen (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)

1. Liga Promotion table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Biel-Bienne	12	8	3	1	13	27
2	Bulle	13	8	3	2	10	27
3	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	16	25
4	Paradiso	13	7	3	3	12	24
5	Cham	12	7	2	3	5	23
6	Grand-Saconnex	13	7	0	6	6	21
7	Basel II	13	6	1	6	0	19
8	YF Juventus	13	6	1	6	-1	19
9	Amical Saint-Prex	13	6	1	6	-7	19
10	Zürich II	13	5	3	5	-1	18
11	Breitenrain	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Brühl	13	5	2	6	-2	17
13	Kreuzlingen	13	4	3	6	-3	15
14	Young Boys II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
15	Lugano II	13	4	1	8	-7	13
16	Bellinzona	13	2	3	8	-15	9
17	Bavois	12	2	2	8	-6	8
18	Luzern II	12	2	1	9	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.