Lugazi FC Stadium · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Lugazi vs Kigezi HomeBoyz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lugazi and 0.85 for Kigezi HomeBoyz, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Lugazi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lugazi win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lugazi home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lugazi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Lugazi and 0.85 for Kigezi HomeBoyz, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–18.9%
Recent form
Lugazi
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BUL · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maroons · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Entebbe UPPC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC · 1-3 (L)
Kigezi HomeBoyz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Lugazi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 8 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Express | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Vipers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Maroons | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Kitara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Mbarara City | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Kataka | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Ntugasaze | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lugazi win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.