Lugazi FC Stadium · Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Lugazi vs Maroons Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Lugazi and 1.57 for Maroons, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Maroons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maroons win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lugazi home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maroons away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maroons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Lugazi and 1.57 for Maroons, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Lugazi
- 2026-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Express · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BUL · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maroons · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Entebbe UPPC · 1-0 (W)
Maroons
- 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataka · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vipers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugazi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UPDF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Blacks Power · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Express | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maroons win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.