· Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Lugo vs Coruxo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lugo and 1.03 for Coruxo, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Lugo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lugo win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lugo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Coruxo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lugo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Lugo and 1.03 for Coruxo, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–18.3%
Recent form
Lugo
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zamora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ourense CF · 1-0 (W)
Coruxo
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gernika · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Portugalete · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · Lugo 2-1 Coruxo (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lugo win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.