· Analysis updated 08:07 UTC
Luki-Energiya vs Cherepovets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Luki-Energiya and 1.07 for Cherepovets, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Luki-Energiya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luki-Energiya win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luki-Energiya home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cherepovets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Luki-Energiya
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Irkutsk · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherepovets · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vologda · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Baltika II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zvezda St. Petersburg · 2-1 (W)
Cherepovets
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luki-Energiya · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tosno · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow 2 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · Luki-Energiya 4-1 Cherepovets (Cup)
- 2026-07-05T13:00:00.000Z · Luki-Energiya 3-0 Cherepovets (Second League - Group 2)
- 2025-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · Luki-Energiya 0-1 Cherepovets (Second League - Group 2)
- 2025-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · Luki-Energiya 2-4 Cherepovets (Cup)
- 2025-05-25T12:00:00.000Z · Luki-Energiya 1-1 Cherepovets (Second League - Group 2)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luki-Energiya win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.