Lumezzane vs Arzignano Valchiampo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Lumezzane and 1.44 for Arzignano Valchiampo, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Arzignano Valchiampo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lumezzane home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arzignano Valchiampo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arzignano Valchiampo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Lumezzane and 1.44 for Arzignano Valchiampo, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lumezzane win29%

Draw26%

Arzignano Valchiampo win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–111.2%
1–29.0%
1–08.6%
0–28.1%

Recent form

Lumezzane

2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)

Arzignano Valchiampo

2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pergolettese · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Renate · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	7	18
7	Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	1	17
8	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	3	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
11	Desenzano Calvina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	PRO Vercelli	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	-6	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.