Tullio Saleri · Referee A. Palmieri · Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Lumezzane vs Folgore Caratese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Lumezzane and 1.12 for Folgore Caratese, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Lumezzane the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lumezzane home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Folgore Caratese away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lumezzane to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Lumezzane and 1.12 for Folgore Caratese, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Lumezzane
- 2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-1 (W)
Folgore Caratese
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Desenzano Calvina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lumezzane · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | PRO Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.