Lund vs AFC Malmo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Lund and 1.39 for AFC Malmo, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Lund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lund win

50.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.94 – 1.39

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lund home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Malmo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Lund and 1.39 for AFC Malmo, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lund win50%

Draw22%

AFC Malmo win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–19.4%
1–06.9%
2–06.7%
1–26.7%

Recent form

Lund

2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Malmo · 5-2 (W)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hässleholms IF · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skövde AIK · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trelleborg · 2-2 (D)
2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skövde AIK · 2-1 (W)

AFC Malmo

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristianstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskilsminne · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Utsikten · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hässleholms IF · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tvååker · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	26	17	6	3	29	57
2	Hässleholms IF	26	15	3	8	17	48
3	Atvidabergs FF	26	13	8	5	14	47
4	Lund	26	12	8	6	18	44
5	AFC Malmo	26	12	8	6	12	44
6	Rosengård	26	10	9	7	4	39
7	Trollhättan	26	10	8	8	4	38
8	Tvååker	26	9	7	10	-6	34
9	Jonkopings Sodra	26	9	6	11	2	33
10	Olympic	26	10	3	13	-2	33
11	Skövde AIK	26	8	9	9	-9	33
12	Eskilsminne	26	9	5	12	-9	32
13	Kristianstad	26	7	6	13	-10	27
14	Laholm	26	7	5	14	-11	26
15	Angelholms FF	26	5	9	12	-14	24
16	Utsikten	26	2	6	18	-39	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lund win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.