Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée · Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Luparense vs Mestre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Luparense and 0.63 for Mestre, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Luparense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Luparense win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Luparense home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mestre away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 2–013.6%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
Luparense
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altavilla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandona · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Este · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brian Lignano · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clodiense · 3-0 (W)
Mestre
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Obermais · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altavilla · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bassano Virtus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luparense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvi Noale · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Luparense 1-1 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Luparense 1-2 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
- 2025-11-30T13:30:00.000Z · Luparense 0-0 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
- 2025-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · Luparense 0-0 Mestre (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2025-03-23T13:30:00.000Z · Luparense 2-1 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
- 2024-11-10T13:30:00.000Z · Luparense 0-0 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
- 2024-01-14T13:30:00.000Z · Luparense 0-2 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
- 2023-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · Luparense 1-2 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
- 2023-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · Luparense 2-1 Mestre (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2023-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · Luparense 4-1 Mestre (Serie D - Girone C)
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cjarlins Muzane | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Luparense | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | Sandona | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Clodiense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Legnago Salus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Campodarsego | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mestre | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Este | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Conegliano | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Bassano Virtus | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | LME | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Altavilla | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | FC Obermais | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Triestina | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Virtus Bolzano | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -16 | 9 |
| 16 | Calvi Noale | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Schio | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Luparense win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.